Newsman: Republicans have won 52 Senate seats. Republicans had a number of pickup opportunities, including three Democratic-held seats in states that former President Donald Trump carried in 2016, 2020 and, as it turned out, in 2024, too. Meanwhile, Democrats had few realistic possibilities of gaining ground from the GOP. The 538’s final Senate forecast gave Republicans slightly better than a 9-in-10 shot of winning the chamber. Entering this election, Democrats held a wafer-thin 51-to-49 seat majority in the Senate, aided by the four independents who caucus with them. That meant the GOP needed a net gain of one seat to get to a 50-50 tie — in which case the party controlling the vice presidency would control the Senate — or two seats to attain outright control.
Republicans got their 50th seat with their easiest pickup of the night in West Virginia, where the retirement of Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin all but ensured a GOP flip in the Mountain State. Republican Gov. Jim Justice appears to have cruised to landslide victory, as he’s ahead of Democrat Glenn Elliott 69 percent to 28 percent.
The 51st seat for Republicans came in Ohio. Republican Bernie Moreno is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown: With 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, Moreno currently holds a 50 percent to 46 percent lead. Brown ran ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, who trails Trump 55 percent to 44 percent in Ohio, but the incumbent couldn’t capture enough Trump voters to hold onto his seat.
Republicans are also projected to win in Montana, the third red-state seat held by Democrats. There, Republican Tim Sheehy leads Democratic Sen. Jon Tester by around 8 points, 53 percent to 45 percent (with 88 percent of the expected vote reporting). Like Brown, Tester also ran ahead of Harris, who has won only about 38 percent in Big Sky Country.
It looks like as many as four other Democratic-held seats are in play for Republicans. Republican Mike Rogers narrowly trails Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than 1 point in Michigan, with about 4 percent of the expected vote outstanding. In Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick leads Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. by less than 1 point, 49.1 percent to 48.3 percent, with 4 percent of the expected vote remaining to be counted. In Nevada, Republican Sam Brown holds a very narrow edge over Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen with around 88 percent of the expected vote reporting.
Republicans could even compete for Arizona, although Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by about 2 percentage points even as Trump holds a slim edge in the state, with more than 60 percent of the expected vote reporting. One bright spot for Democrats: In Wisconsin’s competitive seat, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin currently holds a lead of just under 1 percentage point with 99 percent of the expected vote reporting, even as Trump is projected to narrowly carry the state.
Democrats may have opportunities we don’t currently see. But if Republicans end up with 55 or more seats after this election, that will be their largest majority since they reached the 55-seat mark in the 2004 election.
